M @ 23:12 UTC
GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is shifting from quiet to active levels with a G2-class geomagnetic storm projected for the coming 12 hours. While current conditions remain calm, geomagnetic indices are forecasted to rise significantly by midday UTC.
The planetary K-index is currently at 1.0, reflecting a quiet geomagnetic environment. However, three active solar regions remain magnetically complex, having produced multiple M-class flares within the last 24 hours. The solar radio flux is elevated at 132 sfu, indicating a robust solar cycle phase.
The forecasted Kp-index of 5.67 is the critical metric, as it indicates the transition into a G2 moderate geomagnetic storm capable of influencing power grid fluctuations and satellite drag.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to escalate rapidly, reaching G1 status by 06:00 UTC and peaking at G2 levels between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC. Expect a transition to active to storm levels throughout the remainder of the observation period.
Aurora visibility for mid-latitudes (40-60°N) is likely to improve significantly during the peak window. Observers in northern latitudes should prepare for potential displays as the Kp index climbs toward 5.67.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4478 | S05W33 | Fki/BGD | 0/0/0 |
| AR4480 | S16W56 | Esi/BG | 1/1/0 |
| AR4479 | N17W52 | Eki/BGD | 3/2/0 |
Monitor the actual Kp-index readings starting at 06:00 UTC to confirm the arrival and magnitude of the projected geomagnetic disturbance.