GEO: QUIET
9
A/B (quiet)
Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet with the Kp-index holding at 2.0. While overall activity is low, there is a notable 70% probability for M-class flares due to the complex solar regions currently crossing the disk.
The solar environment is stable with no geomagnetic disturbances present. We are tracking 9 active regions across the disk, with an F10.7 flux reading of 100.0 sfu indicating moderate solar output. The X-ray flux remains in the baseline range, reflecting a lack of significant impulsive activity over the last 12 hours.
The 70% M-class flare probability is the most critical metric, as it highlights the potential for sudden radio propagation disturbances despite the current quiet geomagnetic state.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet with the Kp-index likely to fluctuate between 1.33 and 1.67. While the chance of a minor radio blackout remains possible if an M-class flare occurs, no significant space weather impacts are anticipated.
Aurora activity is currently restricted to high-latitude regions. There is no expected visibility for mid-latitudes (40-60°N) within the next 24 hours given the current lack of solar wind driving.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4451 | S16E65 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S10E50 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17E11 | Dso/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S07E55 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S14E45 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4445 | N07E26 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21E16 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S16W44 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4450 | N10E44 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of active region AR4447 and AR4451, as their magnetic complexity could trigger M-class solar flares on the visible disk.