GEO: UNSETTLED
9
A/B (quiet)
Current solar conditions are geomagnetically quiet, though active region complexity suggests a heightened probability of moderate solar flares. Background noise remains at a steady, moderate level consistent with the current F10.7 flux of 112 sfu.
The planetary geomagnetic field is currently quiet with a Kp-index of 2.3. While no significant geomagnetic storms are in progress, the solar disk hosts nine active regions, contributing to a 70% probability of M-class flares and a 25% chance of X-class events over the next 24 hours. Current X-ray flux remains in the low-to-moderate range, indicating a stable environment for satellite and radio operations.
The 70% probability for M-class flares is the most important metric, as it indicates a significant potential for localized, short-lived radio propagation impacts on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low, with Kp-indices projected to fluctuate between 1.6 and 2.0. The primary focus for the next 24 hours is the potential for impulsive solar flares rather than geomagnetic disturbance.
Aurora activity will be limited to high-latitude regions, such as the Arctic Circle. Observers at mid-latitudes should not expect visible auroral displays at this time.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4449 | S10E50 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S14E45 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4443 | S16W44 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4451 | S16E65 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4450 | N10E49 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4448 | S07E55 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17E11 | Dso/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21E16 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4445 | N07E26 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the GOES X-ray flux for any sudden spikes that may signal an M-class flare from the more complex active regions, which could trigger immediate, minor high-frequency radio blackouts.