GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently stable with no significant geomagnetic disturbances observed or expected in the next 24 hours. While eleven active regions are present on the solar disk, flare activity remains at low, background levels.
The planetary K-index is at a low of 1.3, indicating a quiet geomagnetic environment following the return to baseline after recent unsettled conditions. The 10.7cm radio flux stands at 137 sfu, reflecting moderate solar cycle activity, though the current X-ray flux remains firmly in the A/B-class range. No solar radiation storms or radio blackouts are currently impacting Earth systems.
The current Kp-index of 1.3 is the most significant indicator of the current quiet, stable state of the Earth’s geomagnetic field.
Expect calm conditions to persist throughout the next 24 hours, with Kp indices hovering between 2.0 and 2.7. While there is an 85% probability of C-class solar flares due to the presence of multiple active regions, no significant M-class or X-class activity is anticipated in this timeframe.
Aurora activity is expected to be minimal. With current conditions, sightings at mid-latitudes are highly unlikely; observers should not expect any significant auroral displays during this period.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4433 | S16E43 | Dso/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4435 | N23E50 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4432 | N13E13 | Cai/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4429 | S05W34 | Cai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4434 | N12E36 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16W02 | Eso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S23W79 | Eao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05W75 | Hsx/A | 2/0/0 |
Monitor the development of AR4432 and AR4433, as their magnetic complexity could shift, increasing the potential for impulsive solar flares.