M @ 04:30 UTC · M @ 05:29 UTC · M @ 10:59 UTC
GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains elevated with five active regions contributing to a series of M-class flares over the last 12 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled but remain below storm thresholds.
The solar environment is active, headlined by AR4479, which has produced several M-class flares. Despite this increased flare cadence, the planetary K-index is fluctuating near 3.3, indicating only minor geomagnetic unrest. Solar flux stands at 136 sfu, reflecting a moderately active cycle as we monitor for potential further impulsive energy releases.
The 55% M-class flare probability is the most important metric, as it indicates a sustained potential for radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain in the unsettled range with Kp indices hovering around 3. Flare activity will likely persist at moderate levels, with a 55% probability of additional M-class flares as the identified active regions traverse the solar disk.
Auroral activity is expected to be confined to high latitudes. Observers in mid-latitudes are unlikely to see significant displays under the current conditions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4483 | S06W29 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4482 | S08E62 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4479 | N16W89 | Eki/BGD | 9/5/0 |
| AR4481 | N14E33 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4478 | S05W74 | Eko/BG | 0/0/0 |
Monitor AR4479 closely for any evolution in magnetic complexity that could lead to more significant X-ray bursts or eruptive activity.