M @ 14:35 UTC
GEO: QUIET
4
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions remain quiet with a Kp-index of 1.0, though solar activity remains elevated due to flare production in active region AR4493. Earth’s magnetosphere is currently stable with no significant solar radiation storms or geomagnetic disturbances.
The solar environment is characterized by stable conditions with a F10.7 radio flux of 129 sfu, indicating moderate solar output. A single M-class flare occurred in AR4493 earlier today, but it has not resulted in a terrestrial impact. Global geomagnetic activity remains low, and satellite operations are experiencing nominal conditions.
The 40% probability of M-class flares from AR4493 is the most important metric, as it represents the primary source of potential, albeit minor, radio frequency interference.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain quiet, with the Kp-index likely fluctuating between 1 and 2. While further C-class flares are highly probable, the likelihood of an M-class flare remains at 40%, which may cause minor, localized radio degradation on the sunlit side of Earth.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes; current solar wind conditions are insufficient to push the auroral oval south of polar regions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4491 | S12E09 | Bxi/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4492 | N15E59 | Dac/BG | 0/0/0 |
| AR4493 | N05E10 | Dai/BG | 3/1/0 |
| AR4489 | S07W26 | Cso/B | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of AR4493 for any rapid evolution that could increase the probability of higher-magnitude solar flares.