GEO: QUIET
8
A/B (quiet)
The sun is currently in a state of moderate activity with stable magnetic fields. Geomagnetic conditions are largely quiet, though short-term fluctuations in the Kp-index are expected over the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is marked by eight active regions with a moderate F10.7 flux of 142.0 sfu, indicating a healthy level of solar cycle progression. X-ray output remains low, currently in the A/B class, with recent solar flare activity limited to minor C-class events. Geomagnetic conditions are stable at Kp 2.0, showing no significant disturbance to the magnetosphere at this time.
The 45% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric to track, as it indicates the potential for localized radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Expect a minor uptick in geomagnetic activity with the Kp-index likely to reach 4.0 within the early hours, before gradually subsiding. Solar flare risk remains centered on C-class events, with a moderate 45% probability of an M-class flare from the currently tracked active regions.
Aurora visibility is not expected at mid-latitudes (40-60°N). Observers at high northern latitudes may see minor activity during the transient Kp 4.0 period, but widespread displays are unlikely.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4455 | N15W90 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4456 | N17W61 | Dai/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4458 | S05W76 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4459 | N14W29 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4462 | N15W07 | Dsi/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4463 | N17E24 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4464 | S12E24 | Dac/BG | 1/0/0 |
| AR4465 | N11E70 | Dao/B | 3/0/0 |
Monitor active region AR4464 (S12E24) for any magnetic complexity growth, as its beta-gamma configuration is the most likely source for potential M-class activity.