M @ 17:54 UTC · M @ 02:27 UTC
GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is currently stable with minor geomagnetic fluctuations. Active region AR4482 remains the primary point of interest due to recent M-class flare production.
The Sun is showing moderate activity with an F10.7 flux of 142.0 sfu. Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet with Kp levels hovering around 2.7. While the broader environment is stable, AR4482 continues to exhibit complex magnetic architecture, maintaining a 35% probability of additional M-class solar flares.
The M-class flare probability of 35% for AR4482 is the most significant metric, as it indicates a continued potential for minor radio propagation disturbances on the sunlit side of Earth.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain in the unsettled range with Kp indices peaking briefly near 3.67. Flare potential will persist as long as AR4482 maintains its current magnetic configuration, though major impacts to radio or satellite infrastructure are not currently projected.
Aurora activity will be limited to high latitudes near the polar regions. Observers at mid-latitudes should not expect visible displays under current conditions.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4487 | N09E26 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4482 | S09E27 | Eki/BGD | 4/1/0 |
| AR4486 | S18W57 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4481 | N14W06 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4485 | S10W28 | Dso/BG | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic evolution of AR4482 for any increase in flux or complexity that could signal a higher-tier flare event.