M @ 21:07 UTC · M @ 21:38 UTC · M @ 22:22 UTC · M @ 23:48 UTC · M @ 00:30 UTC
GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic activity is subsiding as the recent G1-level disturbance tapers off. While the interplanetary environment stabilizes, the solar surface remains complex with high flare potential.
The planetary K-index has declined to 3.3 following a period of elevated activity. Solar disk complexity remains high with 29 active regions present, most notably AR4479, which has produced significant M-class flare activity. Current solar flux stands at 136 sfu, reflecting moderate levels of solar irradiance.
The current Kp-index of 3.3 is the primary indicator that the geomagnetic environment is transitioning back to a state of equilibrium.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled to quiet, trending toward Kp 2.67 by midday. Flare probability remains elevated, particularly for M-class events, as the current active regions transit across the disk.
Aurora visibility for mid-latitudes is currently low. As the Kp-index drops below 4, northern lights will likely retreat to their typical high-latitude distribution.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4482 | S08E77 | Hsx/A | 1/0/1 |
| AR4481 | N14E47 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4478 | S06W59 | Fko/BG | 0/1/0 |
| AR4480 | S18W83 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4479 | N16W79 | Fkc/BGD | 7/13/0 |
Monitor AR4482 for further X-class flare activity, as its current configuration suggests ongoing potential for impulsive eruptions.