M @ 19:26 UTC
GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet, with the planetary K-index remaining low at 1.3. While solar activity is physically active due to AR4473, this has yet to translate into significant terrestrial impacts.
The Earth’s magnetic field is undisturbed, with the Kp-index oscillating between 1.0 and 1.3. Solar flux is holding at a moderate 114.0 sfu, supported by 36 active regions across the disk. AR4473 remains the primary center of interest, having produced two M-class flares in the past 12 hours, though no associated coronal mass ejections have triggered geomagnetic instability.
The 35% probability for M-class flares from AR4473 is the most critical metric, as it indicates a persistent potential for sudden radio propagation disturbances on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with the Kp-index likely to settle near 1.0. Flare activity will continue, particularly from AR4473, though the likelihood of earth-directed impacts remains low.
Aurora visibility is restricted to high-latitude polar regions; no displays are expected at mid-latitudes. Observers in northern regions may see standard baseline activity but should not expect significant enhancement.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4470 | N07E02 | Dro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4472 | S14E42 | Dao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4473 | S08E56 | Eai/BG | 4/2/0 |
Monitor AR4473 as it rotates further across the disk for any structural changes that could indicate the potential for a larger, earth-directed eruptive event.