GEO: QUIET
3
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is shifting toward an active state as geomagnetic conditions are forecast to climb to G2 (Kp 5.67) levels later today. While current X-ray flux remains quiet, the geomagnetic field is responding to an incoming solar wind disturbance.
The planetary K-index is currently at 2.7, indicating quiet to unsettled conditions. The F10.7 solar flux remains elevated at 155 sfu, supporting high levels of ionization in the upper atmosphere. Solar flare activity is presently low, with only a single C-class flare reported in the last 12 hours.
The forecast Kp-index of 5.67 is the most critical metric as it indicates a moderate geomagnetic storm that could cause intermittent GPS positioning degradation and increased atmospheric drag on low-earth orbit satellites.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to escalate rapidly, reaching G1 (minor) storm levels by 18:00 UTC and peaking at G2 (moderate) levels around 21:00 UTC. Conditions are expected to moderate back to G1 levels by early June 14.
Observers at mid-latitudes (40-60°N) should prepare for potential aurora displays tonight, particularly between 20:00 and 02:00 local time. Visibility is most likely for regions in high-latitude northern tiers, with potential for southward expansion during the G2 peak.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4465 | N08E04 | Hax/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4464 | S13W44 | Dao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4463 | N17W41 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF); a sustained southward orientation will be necessary to trigger the forecast G2 storm intensity.