GEO: QUIET
5
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains in a baseline quiet state, though geomagnetic conditions are expected to rise to unsettled levels by the start of the next cycle. Current flare production is limited to minor C-class events from existing active regions.
The sun is currently quiet with F10.7 solar flux at 107 sfu, indicating moderate but steady activity levels. Five active regions are present on the disk, with AR4420 and AR4425 showing the most complexity, though they remain relatively stable. The current Kp index of 1.7 reflects a tranquil magnetosphere with no significant space weather disturbances to satellite operations or communication networks.
The predicted Kp-index rise to 4.0 is the most important metric, as it indicates a shift from quiet conditions toward an unsettled geomagnetic state.
Expect a gradual increase in geomagnetic activity over the next 24 hours, with the Kp index predicted to reach 4.0 by the turn of the new day. Solar flare production will likely persist with intermittent C-class activity, while the probability of significant M-class flares remains at a moderate 55%.
Aurora visibility is currently low and restricted to high-latitude regions. As the Kp index climbs toward 4.0 in the coming hours, observers in northern latitudes may experience brief, localized auroral displays, but mid-latitude visibility remains unlikely.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4424 | N17W22 | Eao/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4428 | S24W00 | Cai/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N16W56 | Fkc/BGD | 4/0/0 |
| AR4425 | N05E10 | Ekc/B | 3/0/0 |
| AR4427 | S30E13 | Axx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor the magnetic complexity of active region AR4425, as its current classification suggests a potential for flare escalation in the next 12 to 24 hours.