M @ 18:03 UTC · M @ 18:34 UTC
GEO: QUIET
7
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity remains elevated with multiple active regions, including one recently responsible for X-class flares. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled but expected to return to quiet levels within the next 24 hours.
The sun is currently hosting 30 active regions, with AR4419 remaining the primary focus for high-energy events. Despite recent X-class activity, X-ray flux has subsided to quiet background levels. Planetary K-index is currently at 3.3, reflecting minor geomagnetic disturbances that are trending downward.
The 40% probability of M-class flares remains the most critical metric as it indicates the ongoing potential for localized radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to stabilize, with Kp values dropping from 3.3 to 2.0 by the latter half of the cycle. While the probability of another X-class flare is relatively low at 5%, the complexity of existing regions maintains a 40% chance for M-class events.
Aurora visibility is limited to high-latitude regions. Observers at mid-latitudes are unlikely to see significant activity as the geomagnetic field enters a period of relative calm.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4424 | N17E45 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4423 | S05E30 | Dai/BD | 5/1/0 |
| AR4425 | N06E76 | Dso/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4420 | N17E10 | Eki/BGD | 0/0/0 |
| AR4422 | N08W73 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4419 | N15W79 | Eso/BGD | 1/1/2 |
| AR4421 | S11E24 | Hsx/A | 1/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of Active Region 4419 as it rotates toward the solar limb for any late-stage eruptive activity.