M @ 14:41 UTC · M @ 15:12 UTC · M @ 15:43 UTC
GEO: UNSETTLED
4
M1–M4
While geomagnetic conditions remain currently quiet with a Kp of 0.7, solar activity is notably elevated due to a series of M-class flares. The solar environment is becoming increasingly dynamic as active regions evolve.
The sun is currently exhibiting high levels of eruptive activity, with three M-class flares recorded within the last 90 minutes. Despite this, the terrestrial magnetic field remains undisturbed as these flares have not yet been associated with significant Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. The F10.7 flux index remains high at 155 sfu, reflecting robust solar activity and providing a favorable environment for high-frequency radio propagation.
The current series of M-class flares indicates a magnetically active solar atmosphere that requires monitoring for potential Earth-directed coronal mass ejections.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain largely quiet, with a brief uptick to Kp 4 (unsettled) possible later today as minor solar wind influences arrive. Flare activity will likely remain high, with a 30% probability of further M-class events as active regions maintain complex magnetic configurations.
Aurora visibility is not expected for mid-latitudes (40-60°N). Observers should anticipate a quiet night for space weather effects despite the current solar flaring.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4432 | N14W14 | Cai/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4435 | N23E24 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4433 | S17E16 | Cao/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4431 | S16W30 | Cao/B | 1/0/0 |
Monitor the evolution of AR4433 and AR4431, as their complex magnetic configurations pose the highest risk for additional M-class or potentially X-class flare activity in the next 24 hours.