GEO: QUIET
9
A/B (quiet)
Solar activity is characterized by steady C-class flare production with the geomagnetic field remaining largely stable. While the sun remains active with multiple regions present, no significant geomagnetic storms are currently projected.
The sun is currently hosting 9 active regions, though solar flux levels remain moderate at 103 sfu. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet at Kp 2.7, reflecting a lack of major solar wind disturbances. Radio flux and x-ray output suggest a standard operational environment for satellite and communication systems.
The 45% probability of M-class flares is the primary metric to monitor, as this indicates a potential for localized radio interference on the sunlit side of Earth.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to rise slightly into the unsettled range, peaking at Kp 3.67 as we enter the next 24-hour cycle. Flare probability remains weighted toward C-class events, with a 45% chance of M-class activity originating from the more complex active regions.
Aurora visibility for mid-latitudes (40-60°N) is unlikely at current and forecast activity levels. Observers at very high latitudes may see minor auroral activity, but conditions do not support mid-latitude displays.
| Region | Location | Class | Flares C/M/X |
|---|---|---|---|
| AR4457 | S10W14 | Cro/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4456 | N14E42 | Bxo/B | 0/0/0 |
| AR4455 | N15E24 | Dho/B | 2/0/0 |
| AR4454 | S15E06 | Hrx/A | 0/0/0 |
| AR4452 | N10W75 | Dai/BG | 2/0/0 |
| AR4449 | S09W30 | Cso/B | 3/0/0 |
| AR4447 | S17W69 | Hsx/A | 1/0/0 |
| AR4446 | S15W35 | Cho/B | 1/0/0 |
| AR4444 | S21W62 | Hsx/A | 0/0/0 |
Monitor active region AR4452 for magnetic complexity (Dai/BG classification) which may increase the likelihood of moderate flare production.